Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider: Budget, shutdown debate shifts to Senate

If Republicans are going to defund the Obama health law as part of a stop gap budget plan, they will have to find some Democrats to support that idea in the Senate; but a review of Democratic Senators finds few who might be inclined to join that GOP cause.

Think of it this way - only two of 200 broke ranks last Friday in the House to join Republicans in voting for a stop gap budget that targets the Obama health reform law.

That's only 1% of Democrats in the House; in the Senate, Republicans would need about 10% of the 54 Democrats to preserve provisions that block money for the health law.

That seems like an almost impossible task.

GOP lawmakers have focused mainly on Democrats in Red states who are up for re-election in 2014, but it's hard to see those numbers translating into votes against the signature legislative achievement of President Obama.

One name Republicans often float is that of Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. But her words provide a much different conclusion.

"If I had to vote for the bill again, I would vote for it tomorrow," Landrieu said of the health law in an August appearance in her home state.

Other Republicans say Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska would be a prime candidate to go against the Obama health law. He laughed at that suggestion from reporters last week.

"If you think it's going to get repealed, whoever tells you that isn't giving you the truth," Begich said at a town hall meeting in Anchorage in August.

Both Landrieu and Begich are up for re-election in 2014. But their knees are not getting wobbly on the issue of Obamacare.

Frankly, it's hard to find any Democrat who might be open to voting to defund the Obama health law in the Senate, even when you look at the list of seats open in 2014.

Yes, polling shows the law is not popular, especially with Republicans and Independents.

But those same polls also routinely show that Democrats remain in favor of the plan.

One of the biggest GOP election targets next year is Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas - but his statements back in his home state show no hint of him backing away from the Obama health law.

"It actually is working in a lot of ways," Pryor said in an August interview with KARK-TV.

So, as the Senate begins debate on the health law on Monday, it may well be that Democrats will strip out the provisions blocking money for the Obama health law, and send the funding bill back to the House.

And even some stalwart opponents know the GOP is going uphill right now on the issue.

"I'm acknowledging we can't probably defeat or get rid of Obamacare," Sen Rand Paul (R-KY) said on Sunday at a meeting of Republicans in Michigan. "But by starting with our position of not funding it, maybe we get to a position where we make it less bad."

Stay tuned.

Source: http://www.krmg.com/weblogs/jamie-dupree/2013/sep/22/budget-shutdown-debate-shifts-senate/

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